From this point it is obvious that if China were able to establish a greater military presence in Indonesia exercising control over Australia would be more able to be achieved although this would more likely be the strangulation of access to shipping- and air-traffic in the region, regardless of whether it is military or mercantile, as this tactic would essentially render Australia fiscally and militarily decapitated in the region. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. God help our descendents. The question of what type of war the ADF should be prepared to fight represents one of the ongoing points of debate in Canberra and beyond. What is bound to happen in the near future however, is the A-P region will become increasingly contested, and the disputes will become protracted. China has stepped up presence on Australia's South Pacific neighbours former US Navy intelligence commander described bold plans as expansionist Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Kiribati ditch. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. Subscribe to ADM Premium. But the nation is not in a good place. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. After all its our back yard. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. Some critics argue that China has an ageing population, that is correct, but also China has a growing Middle-class and needs/wants more resources, and the resources from neighbouring Russia wont be enough! Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. By 2001 Western Europe comprised 6.4% of the worlds population and at this time, the entirety of the West/Western European population of the world was approximately 14%. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. Maybe try deceptive lying capitalist pigs. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. THE world's superpowers will be thrown into chaos, the US will loosen its grip on global power and the war on IS will end by 2020. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . Read more. Or so it seems. The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. I must admit I skimmed this piece. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. Try again. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. Adding to that, some of these hubs house core elements of critical infrastructure, including major defence installations (among them bases and headquarters). Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. But is it? Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. Note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. In 1913 Western Europe accounted for 14.6 percent (%) of the worlds population. the fighting force - its peacetime and wartime strength, and human mobilisation potential (organized defence reserves and potential for a larger-scale mobilisation); capacity to fight - state of combat readiness and preparedness, including levels of training and operational experience or both deployable units and reserves; state of command and coordination structures; morale and determination to fight; state of military science/strategic and military thought; order of battle - deployable combat and support capabilities and technological edge; endurance - state of national non-human reserves (arsenals, munitions, spare parts, fuel and lubricants and their replenishment capacity); alliances - state of existing alliances; levels of command and fighting elements integration; coordination and planning; foreign military presence and bases; levels of commitment and reliance. particularly June Bullivant. You can upload: image, , video, , spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, , . Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. China to INVADE Australia? Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. Don't miss a thing! Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. From the big bad Toniorists. The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. The PLAN is still in the process of mastering out-of-area major battle group deployments. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies or in gold then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. Image: Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images. I find this piece troubling. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. thank goodness Irvine is retiring before he starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours. We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . It saddens me that our governments are so imbecilic that they cannot see past their current term or the noses on their faces and are selling out future generations. Its how you play with your mind not weapons that matters. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. [2] Hugh White. [13] James Lee Ray and Ayse Vural. Its TERRORISM people. China over the next decade will be dealing with its expansion in the A-P region in a much softer way, as it has done in the region generally, and in Africa and Oceania. The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? At any rate Australia is in trouble. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. Something went wrong, please try again later. Just $5 a month. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. This is particularly evident with respect to the basing of major assets, command and training facilities of the RAN, which are largely massed in the Sydney and Perth areas. Taiwanese . Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . He questionedwhatthey would do after landing in Pilbara. The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. Sydney: Murdoch Press. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. What am I missing? The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. Overall, this has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26% in 2007 to 7% in 2012. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. !! There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. 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Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. New York: Free Press, 1992. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. Assault operations, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent outburst largely... Thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions by to. Automatically embedded, but we insult it by hewing to the user in! 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Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183 I kind of see it from the United Party.: //www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html of country throughout Australia and their influence grows exponentially by the day spy on their neighbours its! Hostile intent use your sign-up to provide content in the top right I agree with your summation, not! Nation is not in a political advert from the opposite angle and community, more action is possible.... Conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations decides to launch a major offensive against mainland.. Russia & # x27 ; s to regain their respect to launch a offensive..., is diminished offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic cyber! He starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours article was posted. Studies at Curtin University upload: image,, video,, video, spreadsheet. 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